I was struck this morning by a quote from (yes, sorry, it’s him again) Donald Trump in his speech to the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) dinner on Tuesday. Trump was talking about the number of countries around the world calling the White House for trade discussions, driven by last week’s tariff announcements. If you are of a delicate disposition, look away now: “I’m telling you, these countries are calling us up, kissing my ass. They are dying to make a deal. ‘Please, please, Sir, make a deal. I’ll do anything. I’ll do anything, sir.”
On the (very unlikely) basis that this might actually be true, some free advice for those countries: tell them what you want, but maybe not how much you want it. But I’m more interested in how the quote might signpost US priorities – one signal Trump might be sending here is that he is using American economic might to coerce foreign governments into making concessions that would otherwise sit outside of any negotiated outcome. In other words, this isn’t a negotiation – it’s an attempt to impose a solution on an unwilling world. Whether the Trump administration can see this through is another matter, however.
In any scenario – and late on Wednesday night, Trump reversed course by “pausing” on some, although not all, tariffs – it’s those who do negotiate that will be wrangling with the new realities of tariff-driven change. Perhaps one of the biggest issues will revolve around how the additional costs tariffs impose on trade are shared out – the three obvious parties being the exporter, the importer and the end user or customer. The obvious temptation to dump the entire increment on the end buyer carries risks, so it’s likely that there may be a lot of negotiating around who takes what hit before the remainder – inevitably – is passed onto the customer. Short-term issues may loom large for some – will we see a Summer sugar-rush of cheap imports in the UK from Trump’s “worst offenders” as surplus products are rediverted from their intended markets to ones less tariffed? Whatever you might be facing into, it’s unlikely to feel welcome (by you or your counterparty – perhaps worth remembering!) and it’s even more likely to drive the need to negotiate.
If you are going to negotiate, the business and political media are awash with insights around what the future might hold – some of it useful, some perhaps less so. But far better to be prepared to negotiate effectively and skilfully, so that in any eventuality the best available deal is an achievable outcome. Those readers who have been on our Advancing Negotiation Skills course may recall that as their course wrapped up, they were made an attractive (and conditional, naturally) offer – upon completion of a survey we share with participants 90 days after the programme, they would have access to the Scotwork helpline. The opportunity to talk to one of our consultants and interrogate a particularly thorny challenge, get a second opinion or sounding board or ask for some advice. And given the turbulence around global trade right now, it is perhaps a sensible time to remind Scotwork alumni that the offer is a genuine one (as, by the way, is the condition). If you do want to get in touch, you can reach us via the number we shared with you on the course or at info@scotwork.co.uk
